Blue-state Republican aims to evict Dems from 20-year occupation of governor’s mansion

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler's opinion of Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York is crystal clear.

"I think Kathy Hochul is the most feckless, incompetent governor in America," Lawler said in an interview with Fox News Digital.

Lawler, who's in his second term representing the state's 17th Congressional District, which covers a large swath of New York City's northern suburbs, is mulling a 2026 GOP run for governor.

"I'll make a decision at some point – middle of the year. Obviously, you know if we're going to do it, you got to get out there, and you got to campaign hard," Lawler said.  

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He added, "I haven't made a decision yet. I think, obviously, there's a number of factors in play, but you know, we're working through that right now."

Lawler is one of three Republicans mulling a gubernatorial run. So are Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman and longtime Bethany town supervisor Carl Hyde Jr.

It's been 23 years since a Republican won a gubernatorial election in heavily blue New York. You have to go all the way back to former Gov. George Pataki's second re-election victory in 2002.

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But Hochul's approval ratings and favorable ratings remain underwater, giving Republicans hope the losing streak will come to an end next year. The governor also faces potential, longshot, primary challenges from her lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, as well as Rep. Ritchie Torres of New York City.

"There's a reason New York leads the nation in out-migration. It has nothing to do with the weather and everything to do with the high cost of living and the declining quality of life from the migrant crisis to the crime epidemic in New York to the overall cost of living," Lawler said.

And the former political strategist and adviser-turned-politician said "people can't afford to live in New York. They want balance and common sense, and I think that's where there is an opportunity, if you articulate the vision to New Yorkers. They're pragmatic, they're commonsense, and they understand the need for change."

Democrats disagree.

"Whether it’s working to lower costs for families or protecting fundamental rights, Governor Hochul is a fighter for all New Yorkers with a record of getting results," Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Kevin Donohoe told Fox News.

And Donohoe argued that "while Governor Hochul is laser focused on delivering on the priorities that matter to her state, New York Republicans every day are supporting Donald Trump’s agenda that is hurting the Empire State. By spending their time currying favor with Trump, Republicans are setting themselves up for a messy and chaotic primary that will leave whoever emerges as the nominee badly damaged."

In 2022, then-Rep. Lee Zeldin had the best performance by a GOP gubernatorial candidate in New York since Pataki's 2002 victory. Zeldin, who now steers the Environmental Protection Agency in President Donald Trump's second administration, lost to Hochul by less than six and a half points.

And Trump lost the state to then-Vice President Kamala Harris by 13 points in last November's presidential election, but that was a 10-point improvement from his loss margin to Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

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While Republicans have been more competitive statewide in New York the last two cycles, Lawler said next year's elections will "be determined by a few things."

"No. 1, does the economy take off?" he said. "And with the tax bill, with energy production increases, you know, if the economy takes off, then I think people are going to be very willing and open to change in New York."

"Obviously, what we're doing at the border matters," Lawler said. "New York has borne the brunt of some of the disastrous decisions of the Biden administration and Kathy Hochul, spending billions of dollars of taxpayer money on free housing, clothing, food, education and health care for illegals."

And Lawler pointed to his push to raise the cap on the state and local tax deduction, known by its acronym SALT, which is a pressing issue for many New Yorkers.

"Do I deliver on things like SALT and lifting the cap on SALT? And so, if we get these things done, and you know, things are looking up, I think New Yorkers can be very open to a change," he said.

Lawler grabbed attention in 2022 by narrowly defeating incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney, the then-chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

But he's currently one of only three House Republicans who represent districts carried by Harris in November.

Asked if he needs to keep his distance from the president if he seeks statewide office in New York, Lawler told Fox News, "Look, he's the president of the United States, and [I] certainly would welcome his support."

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But he also said "New Yorkers will make a determination, though, based on the choice before them" rather than on Trump.

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"If you present a viable alternative vision to New Yorkers and explain how you're going to deal with housing, how you're going to deal with infrastructure, how you're going to deal with crime, how you're going to deal with the fact that Wall Street is leaving New York in droves, these are significant issues that we have to tackle," Lawler said. "And it requires leadership. It requires a plan. And I think if that is presented to New Yorkers, they'll make a determination based on that."