Gavin Newsom's 2024 chances could be threatened by California's energy grid struggles

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California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom's 2024 presidential chances could be significantly hampered by his state's ongoing electric grid crisis, according to state and energy experts.

Over the last week, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), the state's electric grid operator, has warned that high demand would significantly strain utility providers' ability to supply consumers electricity amid a record heat wave. CAISO issued an "energy emergency alert 3," its highest alert level, on Tuesday evening, saying residents should maximize conservation and expect rotating outages, and a flex alert for the eighth consecutive day Wednesday evening.

"You can thank the governor for giving all Americans a view of their quote-unquote clean energy future," Will Swaim, the president of the California Policy Center, told Fox News Digital. "He has been the absolute pinnacle of environmentalist policy."

"Nobody ever thought America would become a third-world country," he continued. "California is testing that principle right now in real time."

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Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., is pictured in 2021 in Sacramento, California. (Reuters/Fred Greaves)

California has implemented a series of aggressive environmental measures in recent years and decades as part of its attempt to reduce carbon emissions and stave off climate change. 

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One major tenet of the state's environmental policy, which Newsom has forwarded since taking office in 2019, has been to replace traditional fossil fuel electricity generation with renewables like solar panel farms and wind turbines. During his tenure, Newsom has pushed the so-called green transition through tight regulations and has codified ambitious goals including statewide carbon neutrality by 2045.

"One issue here is supply and demand," Bill Whalen, a distinguished policy fellow at the California-based Hoover Institution, told Fox News Digital in an interview. "The second issue here is California's insistence upon moving away from fossil fuels to renewables." 

"The fact is renewables can't carry the load," he added.

Solar panels are seen next to an electricity station in Carson, California, on March 4. (Reuters/Lucy Nicholson)

Heavy investment in green energy — in particular, solar power — has made California the second-largest producer of electricity from renewables in the country, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2021, more than 27% of the state's total electricity supply came from solar, making it the largest producer of solar in the nation.

However, the increased reliance on solar coupled with large-scale fossil fuel power generation retirements has made the state vulnerable during times of increased demand. Solar panels produce just 10%-35% of their advertised capacity while wind turbines generate between 25%-50% of their capacity, EIA data showed.

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"We might at some point have emissions-free energy, but I don't believe solar and wind have enough capacity to be able to provide it for all of California," said Diana Furchtgott-Roth, the director of the Heritage Foundation's Center for Energy, Climate and Environment. 

"We are not on a path to transition to zero emissions anytime soon — certainly not in 2050," she told Fox News Digital. "We just don't have the physical capability of zero-emissions energy."

As part of its climate agenda, California issued an environmental regulation in late August prohibiting the sale of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles after 2034. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

The total capacity of the state's natural gas power plants has fallen 15% between 2013 and 2021, according to the California Energy Commission. Still, natural gas continues to produce the bulk of the state's power amid the energy crisis and far outpaces solar supply before sunrise and after sunset.

California also imports more electricity than any other state in the U.S., receiving between 20%-30% of its supplies from out-of-state, according to the EIA.

Swaim, Whalen, Furchtgott-Roth and Daniel Turner, the founder and executive director of energy group Power The Future, blamed Newsom for doubling down on the policies that have created the state's current grid dynamic. They said the crisis could hurt his chances of winning a federal election. 

Gov. Newsom is pictured in 2021 with President Biden. (Getty Images)

"The electric grid is something the government is responsible for much the same way they are responsible for our safety and security," Turner said in an interview. "If you look at what Governor Newsom is responsible for — what he actually is in charge of — he has brought absolutely nothing but failure to his state."

"The greatest sadness about all this, besides the actual human suffering, is the fact that California has, within its geographical borders, everything it needs for sustainability," he added. "If Gavin Newsom just had the political courage to mine, to drill, to frack, to produce, it really would be an absolute paradise of energy and food and technology."

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Newsom has insisted that he's not planning a presidential run. But he's also bought ads across the country and repeatedly attacked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — who is considered a 2024 GOP frontrunner — while running for re-election in California this year. 

He has also contacted donors who bankrolled President Biden's 2020 campaign, CNBC reported in July.

"The fact is that voters in other states are really going to be put off by this stuff," Swaim said, adding that Newsom would need "armed guards" to walk into Iowa given his environmental and agricultural policies.

Newsom has polled at around 4%-6% in preliminary 2024 Democratic primary surveys compiled by FiveThirtyEight.

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"The problem for Newsom, if he wants to go national, is that California, with each passing day, just becomes that much easier to satire and lampoon," Whalen said.

He noted that Newsom wore a zip-up sweater during an indoor address to residents asking them to set thermostats to 78 degrees or higher during the current crisis.

"Very clearly, we're in an energy crisis and one party rule here has brought us to this point," Jessica Patterson, the chairwoman of the California Republican Party, told Fox News Digital in an interview. "California Democrats have super majorities in both the legislative houses and the governor spot for over a decade and they continue to attack energy."

"I don't think that these policies work in other parts of the country," Patterson continued. "I think that would be the greatest gift to Republicans if Gavin Newsom was the Democratic candidate for president."

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She added that Californians are beginning to "vote with their feet" and leave the state due to Newsom administration policies. The state recently lost a congressional seat as a result of the population decline.